CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 16/05 - 06Z MON 17/05 2004
ISSUED: 15/05 19:14Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across Greece and the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Large upper high is anchored over the western portions of Europe ... with intense vort max at its E periphery quickly digging into the S Balkan States during the forecast period. In its wake ... W/central European SFC high will spread into eastern and southern Europe.

DISCUSSION

...N and central Balkan States...
Small chances of a few shallow TSTMS appears to exist beneath thermal trough associated with the short-wave trough which is migrating into the Balkan States/N-central Mediterranean. Main problem will be the low BL dewpoints ... possible on the order of 0°C for mixed parcels. Current thinking is that mixed-parcel ELs will be too warm for TSTMS ... and will not outlook thunderstorms ATTM.

...Greece ... Aegean Sea...
Patches of residual warm air mass ... possibly originating from the mountainous/elevated terrain over Greece ... will likely be present over Greece/Aegean Sea as indicated by BOLAM's theta-e and GFS' CAPE fields. A few TSTMS may develop with diurnal heating in marginally unstable environment ... maybe persisting until late Sunday evening as DCVA downstream from the short-wave trough overspreads the region. About 20 m/s deep-layer shear should be in place across this region ... and a few strong wind gusts may occur. Severe threat will be minimal though owing to weak low-level shear and meager thermodynamic profiles.

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